India relies on Bangladeshโs cooperation to maintain stability in its seven northeastern states. Any change in Dhakaโs stance on anti-India insurgent groups or transit routes could directly threaten Indian internal security.
Bangladesh will hold parliamentary elections on February 12 – the first since the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina following massive protests led by students in August 2024. This general election is a pivotal moment that could fundamentally reshape its relationship with India. Following a period of “not so cool” relations under the interim government, the election outcome will determine whether the two nations return to a “Golden Era” of cooperation or shift towards a more transactional and strategically distant partnership.
With rapidly changing power dynamics in the region, the strain on relationships between New Delhi and Dhaka is bound to fluctuate. However, Indiaโs geopolitical equations are changing a little too fast. To the east lies Bangladesh, which shares a border of more than 4,000 kilometres with India, where general elections are scheduled to be held after two days. Now, the question arises: Who will form the government in Bangladesh after February 12? Will a radical government come to power? And most importantly, how much impact will the Bangladesh elections have on India?
Potential shifts in political alignment
Theย Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by Tarique Rahman, is seen as a frontrunner in the election. While at odds with India, the BNP is now signaling a “Bangladesh Before All” doctrine, stressing “Friend Yes, Master No,” which suggests a desire for more equal, renegotiated terms.
Apart from this, the resurgence ofย Jamaat-e-Islami, a party with hardline views, poses security concerns for New Delhi. However, even Jamaat has recently projected a more “pragmatic realism” to avoid isolating potential regional partners.
In the meantime, some of the political experts believe that India is moving away from its previous strategy of “putting all eggs in one basket” with theย Awami Leagueย and is now engaging with a broader political spectrum to insulate ties from future shifts in power.ย
Strategic and security concerns
India relies on Bangladeshโs cooperation to maintain stability in its seven northeastern states. Any change in Dhakaโs stance on anti-India insurgent groups or transit routes could directly threaten Indian internal security.
Apart from this, a new government may deepen ties withย Chinaย andย Pakistanย to reduce dependence on India as China has already increased its influence through defense agreements and infrastructure projects like the Padma Bridge.ย
Contentious issues that could impact New Delhi-Dhaka ties
The Hasina Extradition:ย Indiaโs decision to shelter Sheikh Hasina remains a major diplomatic factor. And a new elected government is likely to increase pressure for her extradition to face justice, testing New Delhi’s diplomatic flexibility.
Minority rights in Dhaka:ย Reports of violence against Hindus in Bangladesh have become a prominent issue in Indian domestic politics. How the next government protects minorities will be a key metric for trust-building with New Delhi.
Teesta water-sharing treaty:ย Long-standing issues like the Teesta water-sharing treaty and trade imbalances are expected to be brought back to the forefront as Dhaka seeks “equitable” relations rather than the perceived hegemony of the past.
What India wants in Bangladesh?
India wants a stable government in Bangladesh to prevent infiltration along the 4,000-kilometre border and to protect minority communities. It is significant to note that history is replete with examples of Bangladeshโs repeated upheavals but as the country once again stands at a crossroads, India will have to remain vigilantโbecause in diplomacy, what is said and what is ultimately done are often very different.
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Bangladesh General Election: Why Bangladesh’s February polls matter for Hindu minority’s safety