For more than two decades, Vladimir Putin has been at the centre of Russia’s political and global identity. Since rising to power at the end of the 1990s, Putin has reshaped the Russian state, strengthened its military and restored Moscow’s position as a major force in global affairs. But every political era eventually changes, raising an important question: what happens to Russia after Putin? And while much of the world remains focused on Putin, China appears to be looking further ahead.
Russia’s growing dependence on China
Relations between Moscow and Beijing have grown significantly over the past decade. The relationship became even more important after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 triggered sweeping Western sanctions and pushed Moscow away from many European markets. China increasingly became a crucial economic partner for Russia. Chinese companies expanded their presence in the Russian market, while trade between the two countries reached record levels. China also became an important destination for Russian energy exports. But the relationship is not equal. Russia depends heavily on China for trade, technology and access to markets, while Russia represents only a relatively small part of China’s overall economy. This imbalance gives Beijing considerable leverage in its relationship with Moscow.
Looking beyond Putin
China’s approach may extend beyond economics. Reports have suggested that Chinese officials have sought relationships with a broader group of Russian political and economic figures, including regional leaders, bureaucrats and younger officials. Such relationships could become important if Russia eventually enters a period of political transition. Putin has maintained a powerful system of competing political, military and security interests. A change in leadership could alter that balance and create uncertainty over Russia’s future direction. However, a post-Putin Russia would not necessarily mean a shift towards the West. A new leadership could emerge from within Russia’s existing political and security establishment while maintaining many of Moscow’s current positions.
For China, the priority may therefore be continuity rather than any particular successor. By maintaining links across Russia’s political and economic networks, Beijing could seek to preserve its influence regardless of who eventually occupies the Kremlin. China has often pursued long-term strategies through trade, investment, energy and diplomacy. Its growing relationship with Russia reflects that approach. Putin’s political future remains uncertain, and no one can predict when or how a leadership transition might occur. But as Russia becomes increasingly tied to China economically and strategically, Beijing’s influence could become an important factor in shaping Russia’s next chapter, whenever the post-Putin era begins!