Iranโs hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has effectively taken control of the countryโs military and diplomatic decision-making, according to a report by The New York Post citing regional analysts.
The shift is said to have taken place over the weekend, with IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi and his close allies assuming a dominant leadership role within the Islamic Republic. The development comes amid rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and Tehranโs move to bypass planned ceasefire negotiations with the United States.
Moderate leaders sidelined
The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War reported that more moderate figures, including Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi, have been sidelined. Although Araghchi had indicated willingness to reopen the strategic waterway after talks with the Trump administration, the IRGC reportedly overruled him, insisting the strait remain closed in response to US pressure on Iranian ports.
According to the report, Vahidi has secured backing from Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, secretary of Iranโs Supreme National Security Council, strengthening his grip over military and strategic operations. The IRGC has increased its presence in the region, relying heavily on fast attack vessels following losses to its conventional naval forces in recent conflicts.
Tensions escalated further after Iran reportedly targeted at least three ships attempting to pass through the strait, leaving hundreds of vessels stranded in the Persian Gulf and reinforcing the blockade.
Divisions in Iranian leadership
Zolghadrโs influence has also extended into diplomatic efforts. He was added to Iranโs negotiating team earlier this month to ensure alignment with IRGC directives and the authority of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
The Institute for the Study of War noted internal divisions within the delegation, reporting that Zolghadr complained to IRGC leadership that Araghchi had exceeded his mandate by showing flexibility on Iranโs support for the so-called Axis of Resistance. This reportedly led to a recall of the negotiating team to Tehran, backed by figures including Hossein Taeb.
The report suggests that Vahidi, alongside Mojtaba Khamenei, has now emerged as the key decision maker in Iran, effectively placing the IRGC above civilian leadership figures such as parliamentary leader Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
Analysts say this power shift significantly limits prospects for engagement with the West, as figures like Araghchi and Ghalibaf lack the authority to influence policy.
The developments also challenge claims from Washington that Iranโs leadership had moderated following recent losses of senior officials. With no clear timeline for renewed talks, uncertainty remains over whether the fragile ceasefire will hold beyond the current deadline.
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