US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard delivered a sobering testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee on Wednesday (March 18) cautioning that Pakistan’s advancing long-range ballistic missile program could soon produce intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of hitting American soil. This revelation, drawn from the Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, paints a picture of ballooning global missile threats, with adversaries rapidly expanding arsenals that challenge US defenses and homeland security.
Explosive growth in global missile threats
Gabbard emphasised that the US nuclear deterrent remains robust against strategic risks, but nations like Russia, China, North Korea, Iran and Pakistan are aggressively pursuing advanced missile systems- both novel and conventional- armed with nuclear or traditional warheads that bring the US homeland into range. The Intelligence Community (IC) projects a dramatic surge from over 3,000 missiles today to more than 16,000 by 2035, amplifying collective dangers to unprecedented levels.
Pakistan’s ICBM ambitions and regional players
Specifically on Pakistan, Gabbard stated the IC assesses its long-range ballistic missile developments as potentially enabling ICBMs with sufficient reach to target the US. China and Russia lead in crafting systems designed to evade or overwhelm US missile defenses, while North Korea’s existing ICBMs already threaten American territory, backed by an expanding nuclear stockpile. Iran, too, possesses space-launch technologies that could yield a viable ICBM before 2035 if pursued, though recent US-led Operation Epic Fury’s strikes on Iranian missile infrastructure may alter this trajectory pending full evaluation.
Proliferation of drones and hybrid tactics
Despite the rise of one-way attack drones mimicking missile roles, major powers including China, Iran, North Korea, Pakistan and Russia prioritise sophisticated missiles to menace the US, the assessment notes. These militaries plan to integrate high-end weapons with low-cost, disposable systems to overload American defenses. The report warns of a broader shift where regional actors like Egypt, Israel, Pakistan, Turkey and the UAE increasingly deploy lethal aid, proxies, or direct forces to sway conflicts or undermine foes.
Rise of threshold conflicts and coercive tools
Even without great-power wars, smaller states show growing readiness to wield force for strategic gains, per the 34-page Senate document. Many now favor ‘gray zone’ tactics below open warfare- such as sabotage, assassinations, arbitrary detentions, non-lethal strikes and weaponised migration- to coerce adversaries without full escalation. This evolving landscape demands vigilant US adaptation to counter multifaceted threats from proliferating missile tech and hybrid aggressions.